Eau du SeanQ
Saturday, May 13, 2006
  Talkin' Fantasy Baseball
Now that the season is almost seven weeks old, I guess I'll finally get around to posting some information about my team. I'll run through the players in the order I drafted them, though about half of these guys aren't even on the current roster.

To give you a quick overview of how the league works, there are 13 teams consisting of 30 players: 15 active hitters (two each at catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, and five outfielders), 10 active pitchers (any combination of starters and relievers), and five reserves. The teams compete in eleven categories, five pitching (Wins, Saves, Earned Run Average, Strikeouts, and WHIP [essentially baserunners per inning]) and six offensive (Batting Average, Homeruns, Runs Batted In, Runs Scored, Stolen Bases, and a unique category called Base Count [more on that later]). Each day the stats your team earns are added to cumulative totals for the season. Points are awarded in each category, with 13 points going to the league leader and one point to the last place team. The teams are then ranked by the total number of points accumulated in all categories.

Base count took me some time to get used to, it is a stat created for this league designed to give value to guys who get on base and have decent power, without overvaluing homeruns or batting average. It is computed as follows: BC = Walks + (2 x Doubles) + (3 x triples). The closest parallel mainstream stat to BC I can think of is OPS (On Base Pctg + Slugging Pctg), which also measures and rewards walks and power. Essentially Base Count is OPS with the homeruns and singles removed, and made more palatable for fantasy use by expressing it as a counting stat rather than a rate stat. A player with a good BC will average about one BC per game played; for a full season a 160 BC is roughly the same level of accomplishment as a .300 batting average. Last year I owned Brian Giles, who led the league with a 219 BC (38 doubles, 8 triples, and 119 walks). The all-time best BC belongs to Barry Bonds, who once walked 232 times in a single season.

The draft order is determined randomly, and reverses every round, so (for example) the person with the first pick in the draft didn't pick again until the last pick of the second round. I had the 9th overall pick, and with 13 teams in the league my second round pick was #18 overall. With that all in mind, here's the team I drafted this year. Again, many of the players below aren't on my team any more, but I'll save the details of the deals I've made for another post.

#1 David Wright, 3B, Mets

I was shocked to get Wright, as I'd been told the guy in the fifth slot wanted him, but apparently he'd traded down in the first round to the 11th spot. The first eight picks to me came: A-Rod, Albert Pujols, Vlad Guerrero, Mark Teixiera, Carl Crawford, Derreck Lee, Johan Santana, and Manny Ramirez. I'd drafted Wright in the middle rounds last year and he was terrific, and he's strong in all six offensive categories, so I was very happy to land him.

#2 Miquel Cabrera, 3B/OF, Marlins

Assuming Wright would be gone, I'd been looking at three names with the 9th pick: Crawford, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Bay. For the 18th pick I'd targeted Michael Young, Chone Figgins, Chase Utley, and David Ortiz. I'd planned to draft offense in scarce positions like 2B and SS in the earlier rounds, since the drop-off between the elite middle infielders and the league-average guys is pretty steep. That made Young and Utley my strongest choices. Unfortunately, in the eight picks before my turn came around again at 18, all six of them were chosen, leaving me scrambling for a pick.

Cabrera was by far the best player left on the board, so I had to take him. Coincidentally, he was my second round pick the year before as well. The problem is, he's also a third baseman. Worse than that, he's playing for the Marlins, who are essentially fielding a Triple-A team this year, having traded or lost to free agency about 80% of the previous year's roster. As it played out, he was only on the team for about a week before I traded him. Drafting two third baseman in the first wo rounds was definitely not part of my strategy coming in, so frustrated, I crumpled up my cheat sheet for third sackers and waited for the next round to begin.

#3 Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners

Starting pitchers were beginning to fall off the board, so I went ahead and took my third-rated starter with my third pick. "King" Felix, rookie phenom, the heir apparent to Dwight Gooden, hasn't come close to living up to the advance hype, but I'm hoping he'll come around (even after he gave up 10 runs to the A's earlier this week... ugh).

#4 Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees

A few months ago I went into the fridge at work and took out a cup of Stonyfield Farms yogurt. I didn't realize when I opened it that the foil seal had been broken, and the yogurt had gone terribly sour. I scooped the first bite into my mouth and immediately every taste bud in my mouth went into DEFCON-5 High Alert. It was so bitter it was sharp, almost electric, as if I'd pressed a scoop of live 9V batteries against my tongue. I'd never felt such an urgent, awful sensation in my life....

... until I drafted Derek Jeter.

In retrospect, I never should have drafted him. I simply hate the Yankees, and last year I had a hard and fast rule, no Yankees were allowed anywhere near my team. I made a lone exception for about two weeks worth of a lousy Bernie Williams toward the end of the year, but otherwise I was able to avoid any pinstripes all season. As much as I hate the whole team, I absolutely despise Jeter - about the only thing I loathe more is hearing John Sterling call a Jeter homerun on WCBS (Iiiiiit is high! Iiiiiit is far! Iiiiiiiiit is GAAAWWWWWWWN!). As much as you can have a cry of surprise in a text chat format, one arose after I made the pick, as anyone who knew me from last year was in utter disbelief.

Anyway, I was blindly trying to get back to my plan of drafting scarce positions early, and 2B and SS were the two spots I most wanted at least one early-round stud. I'd drawn a line on my shortstop rankings demarking the really good players, noting a very sharp drop-off in talent below it, and Jeter was the last available player above the line. I tried for days after the draft to convince myself to get over my personal bias for the good of my team. I also rationalized that if I really couldn't stand having him on the team, I could trade him. I tried, I really did, but I could not watch a game and hope for the man to succeed... I wanted him to blow out his Achilles turning a double play. He lasted exactly one day on my team, until I essentially gave him away.

#5 Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers

This was probably a round or two too early for him, but I was still targeting middle IF players and I had him ranked very high at the position. I didn't draft any 50-SB burners, but a lot of guys like Weeks, players who will steal around 15 bags while not killing my offense in the other five categories.

#6 Joe Mauer, C, Twins

Just the second catcher drafted, after Victor Martinez. I sensed a run on backstops coming and decided to get my guy before it started. Also, catchers are as a whole a pretty anemic hitting crew, so landing even one decent sitck was a high draft priority of mine as well.

#7 Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians

First off, that's not a typo, that's really how he spells his name. He had a strong second half last year as a rookie, and this year even if he regressed toward a league-average shortstop he'd still be valuable playing for a high-powred offense like the Indians'.

#8 Doug Davis, SP, Brewers

I really wanted Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks with this pick, but the guy right before me grabbed him (a theme that would repeat itself throughout the draft). Davis was the next guy on my list, and he was fourth in the NL in strikeouts in 2005 though almost no one noticed. So far this year, Webb is off to a 6-0 start while Davis has really struggled with his control, walking more batters than he's struck out.

#9 Brad Wilkerson, OF/1B, Rangers

Again, I had someone different lined up with this pick, Coco Crisp of the Red Sox. Wilkerson was a big sleeper of mine, I think he is going to have a huge year playing in Texas. Even if I had grabbed Crisp with the 9th pick, Wilkerson would have been picked with the 10th. Many people drafted outfielders in the early rounds as they tend to be better offensive players, but this was the first OF I'd chosen. My strategy held that the OF talent pool was much deeper, and the difference between the 5th best and 15th best OF is much smaller than the difference between the 5th best and 15th best shortstop, or second-baseman, or catcher.... Also, decent OF are generally available in the waiver pool, so far this season I've grabbed two guys from the pool who are playing key roles on my team.

#10 Danny Haren, SP, Oakland

Another young started I liked a lot, and who I owned briefly last year. He started the year a bit unlucky,with a great K/BB ratio but high ratios caused by a very high BABIP (batting average on balls in paly... just go with me on this if you don't understand). He's turned his season around inhis last two starts (on someone else's team, as I traded him, too).

#11 Francisco Liriano, RP, Twins
#12 Brian Fuentes, RP, Rockies


Forgetting Jeter for the moment, this was my one big mistake in the draft. The day before we picked, Liriano had been dropped from the Twins starting rotation. I easily could have picked him ten rounds later than this with no competition. As it has worked out, he's given me great value as a reliever (32/4 K/BB and low ratios), and now that half of the Twins' starting pitchers have imploded he's in the rotation anyway.

Where this pick wound up hurting me is that I realized this round that closers were quickly being snapped up. I purposely didn't go after any of the big names inthe early rounds, as I had three names who I thought I could grab in rounds 8-12 and give me decent numbers. After I made my 11th round pick, six closers went off the board in the next eight picks, including two of the three guys I'd targeted (Jose Valverde of the D'backs and Mike Gonzalez of the Pirates). That left me one good closer with the 12th pick, the Rockies' Fuentes. Most of the other owners avoided Rockie pitchers completely, but Fuentes was very good last year with excellent ratios, especially considering he plays half his games at altitude. Fuentes would wind up being the only closer I'd draft, as all of the full-time closers with stable jobs were gone by the time the draft snaked back to me.

#13 Cliff Floyd, OF, Mets
#14 Michael Barrett, C, Cubs
#15 Nick Johnson, 1B, Nationals


Several sleepers of mine went off the board around this time, most of them outfielders. I picked Floyd at 13 because Yahoo liked him as the best guy left, and I desperately needed some power from the power lineup spots. So far this year, he's been awful. Barrett came off at 14 just after Josh Willingham of the Marlins was picked, he was the last catcher I liked at all and he's been pretty solid to date.

Most of the other league owners had their first base spots filled already, as many of the elite power-hitting guys went off in the first six rounds. Since I'd focused on position scarcity, I hadn't drafted any 1B at all. Well, none that I knew about, I didn't realize at the time that Wilkerson had 1B eligibility. Johnson was another sleeper, and he finally looks like he's fulfilling his potential, leading the Nats in just about every offensive category.

#16 Carlos Silva, SP, Twins
#17 Corey Patterson, OF, Orioles
#18 Jay Gibbons, OF/1B, Orioles


None of these guys are still on my team, for various reasons. I owned Silva last year when he broke a league record for lowest BB/9 that had stood since the dead ball era of the late 1800s. This year he's been getting just tattooed all over the place, with an ERA over 8. I absorbed four or five brutal beatings from him before giving up and waiving him. Patterson was supposed to be the Orioles' starting CF, with the change of locations breathing new life into his flagging career. But he started the year in a platoon/rotation with a few guys, and though his stats were solid when he played, I eventually moved him in a trade. Gibbons I liked as a break-out candidate, but I ended up throwing him into the get-Jeter-away-from-me deal just to add some nice insult to my injuries.

#19 Ian Kinsler, 2B, Rangers
#20 Rocco Baldelli, OF, Devil Rays


I loved Kinsler this late in the draft, he was talked up in a few places as a Rookie of the Year candidate. Unfortunately he hurt his hand two weeks into the season and isn't due to come back for another week or so. Baldelli was supposed to start the season on the 15-day DL then begin playing in mid-April, but he's still there on the DL, just starting a rehab assignment next week. Both are currently stashed on my reserves roster until they're healthy.

#21 Jeff Weaver, SP, Angels
#22 Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers
#23 Jason Vargas, SP, Marlins


Filling out my rotation with one veteran innings eater in Weaver and two kids with high upsides in Verlander and Vargas. Verlander was more than adequate if uninspiring and I finally dealt him earlier today. Vargas was a nightmare, I threw him back into the waiver pool when he couldn't get out of the fifth inning for a win after his team spotted him a 10-2 lead. Weaver was dealt early in the season, and it's a good thing because he's been just terrible too.

#24 Xavier Nady, OF, Mets
#25 Matt Murton, OF, Cubs


Nady got off to a red hot start, and I somewhat hastily threw him out on waivers when Kinsler got hurt and I needed a replacement second baseman. Murton has been steady though he hasn't shown much power, his numbers will suffer while the Cubs are without Derreck Lee.

#26 Oscar Villareal, RP, Braves
#27 Sean Burroughs, 3B, Devil Rays
#28 Pedro Astacio, SP, Nationals
#29 Doug Mirabelli, C, Padres
#30 Anderson Hernandez, 2B, Mets


Not much to speak of here, and most of these guys were gone after the first waiver draft. Villareal is noteworthy only because he got four vulture wins in the first two weeks of the season, saving my pitching staff from complete ruin. I went back and forth between Astacio and Steve Traschel, finally settling on the Nat in part because their home park is so extreme, and in part because last year I grabbed a terrific Nat pitcher, John Patterson, with the last pick of the draft. Lightning failed to strike twice as Astacio went on the DL right before the season.

As I keep alluding, at least half ofthis roster has turned over inthe first seven weeks of the season, I'll post some of the trades and free-agent pick-ups I've made next time around.
 
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Rantings, ravings, ramblings, and musings about stuff that may amuse my friends.

Name: SeanQ
Location: Connecticut, US
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